Amanah won’t dare cause 3-way fight for Mahkota, says analyst

August 7, 2024

Amanah won’t dare cause 3-way fight for Mahkota, says analyst

PETALING JAYA: An analyst has played down an Amanah Youth leader’s threat of going up against Umno in a three-cornered fight in the coming Mahkota by-election.

Political analyst Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani said Amanah would not dare go against its Pakatan Harapan allies, while its state leadership would likely abide by the directive of the coalition’s central leadership.

“Even if Amanah Youth plans to field an independent candidate, the impact will not be significant. Amanah will not go against the DAP and PKR. The party cannot survive outside of PH and will not want to alienate its allies,” he told FMT.

Another analyst, Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan, warned that BN will respond in kind in other state assembly elections if Amanah does decide to run against Umno in Mahkota, a Johor state assembly seat.

Citing Umno’s incumbency and long history in Mahkota, having held the seat since its creation in 2004 before losing it to Amanah in 2018, Azmi said the Barisan Nasional lead party should be allowed to defend the seat.

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He added that PH’s top leadership must resolve this matter as soon as possible, despite Amanah’s disgruntlement with the lack of Johor PH representation in the Johor administration.

“If (Johor) Amanah is adamant about (causing a three-way race in Mahkota), a free-for-all will ensue when state elections are held in Johor, Sabah, Penang and even Selangor.”

Azmi also said PH was likely to lose the seat to BN again, citing the results of the 2022 Johor polls which saw the late Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain defeating Amanah’s Taqiuddin Cheman with a 5,166-vote majority.

Yesterday, Kluang Amanah laid claim to the Mahkota seat, which fell vacant following the death of Sharifah last Friday, prompting brickbats from several Umno leaders.

Johor DAP chief Liew Chin Tong had also come out to state that the party would uphold the “principle of incumbency”.

Amanah Youth executive council member Fadhli Umar Aminolhuda later said he was determined to push for the party to field a candidate since the Johor government was not a unity government.

However, Amanah communications director Khalid Samad told FMT that the stand taken by Kluang Amanah and Fadhli did not reflect the party’s views, whether at the national or state level.

Azmi and Asrul both agreed that Mahkota should be a safe seat for the unity coalition, particularly given Perikatan Nasional’s poor track record in the state.

Nonetheless, Asrul said Umno would be a better choice, given its tried and tested machinery in Johor, as well as menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s popularity among Johoreans.

“Amanah must accept the political reality that Umno will always be given priority in the current dynamics between PH and BN, similar to MCA in relation to the DAP,” said Asrul, formerly of BowerGroupAsia.