Kuala Kubu Baharu poll a test of Malay votes, says analyst

March 31, 2024

Kuala Kubu Baharu poll a test of Malay votes, says analyst

PETALING JAYA: A political analyst has suggested that the impending Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election will primarily gauge the voting patterns of the Malay electorate, instead of the Indian community.

James Chin of University of Tasmania said non-Malay voters are likely to continue rallying behind Pakatan Harapan (PH), especially given DAP’s strong hold over the Chinese vote.

However, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s vocal support for the Palestinians following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza, and Umno positioning itself as the defenders of Islam in the controversy surrounding the sale of socks bearing the word “Allah”, gave the impression that the ruling coalition was out to woo the Malay electorate.

“So let’s see whether this tactic works among the Malay-Muslim population,” he told FMT.

Chin’s remarks came after a claim by former Penang DAP deputy chairman P Ramasamy that the coming by-election was a potential litmus test of Indian support for the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN).

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Ramasamy, now leading his newly launched Indian party Urimai, said Indian voters were prepared to support the opposition despite uncertainties about future improvements under a new government.

Kuala Kubu Baharu, a seat in the Selangor state assembly, has a mixed electorate, with Malay voters comprising 46%, Chinese (30%), Indian (18%) and others (5%).

It has historically been represented by Chinese assemblymen. In the state election last August, Lee Kee Hiong of DAP was re-elected with a majority of 4,119 votes in a three-way contest.

The seat fell vacant following her death on March 21.

Ramasamy’s claims follow concerns among MIC grassroot members that support for the government among the Indian electorate was dwindling, with the community leaning towards PN, partly due to their disappointment in Anwar not keeping to his promises.

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With Ramasamy’s Urimai reportedly looking to support PN in the by-election. Chin said, it would serve more as a personal test for him in terms of influencing Indian voters to back the opposition.

He said Ramasamy attempted to mobilise the Penang Indian voters during the state election last year, but all his supporters, such as David Marshel and Satees Muniandy, lost their deposits.

“So, the by-election isn’t about Indian votes shifting to PN, but whether he can be the community’s champion especially after they (indirectly) rejected him in Penang.”

Another analyst, Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia, said the by-election was not just a test of the Indian community’s support but also of non-Malay support for PH.

Results of the state elections last year showed that Indian votes for PH had dropped by 21% in Negeri Sembilan, 19% in Penang and 12% in Selangor, while votes for PN had increased by 29%, 19% and 14% respectively in the three states.

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Azmil said the trend might continue in Kuala Kubu Baharu.

Last year, a survey by think tank Ilham Centre noted that Anwar polled 24% support among Malay voters, in contrast to his support from the Chinese (88%), Indians (81%) and others (75%). Anwar however downplayed the findings, calling the survey flawed.

Azmil said economic concerns, particularly among low-income individuals, will also play a significant factor influencing voter sentiment in the by-election.